The Blog @ Spolitics

What’s in a Poll Number?

There’s been a lot of ballyhoo in the media about President Bush’s poll numbers. It seems every week we hear that he’s hit the lowest approval rating of his presidency. The latest comes courtesy of a Harris poll that claims only 29% of Americans approve of the job Bush is doing. Of course, there are a lot of polls out there, so who do you trust? They all have their own methodology, they all “weight” their results and they all claim the math beyond that manipulation is proprietary – hence secret. So, perhaps the best way for us to gauge their accuracy is to look at their track record. For example, just before the 2004 election Harris predicted that Kerry would win a narrow victory. The most accurate pollster during the 2004 election was Rasmussen Reports. Rasmussen predicted a Bush victory and came within a half a percentage point of the actual results. Currently, Rasmussen put Bush’s approval rating at 38%. Not great, but a significant difference from 29%. I’ll leave it up to you who to believe.

The real concern for Republicans (especially since the Presidency is wrapped up until ’08 anyway) should be what Rasmussen has to say about congress. Not only does he see a 15 point advantage for Democrats on a generic ballot, but states: “Just 58% of conservatives say they would vote for the Republican candidate.”

Bush was elected on a platform of social security reform and tax simplification. The Republicans in congress abandoned him on the prior and this past April 15th was a painful reminder that they did nothing about the later. And when they should have been putting together a strong energy policy that would have eased some of our pain at the pump, they were giving us greater federal control over education and a bloated Medicare bill. Now they’re talking about border security that should have been addressed over four years ago and they can’t even stick together on that. 

Is it any mystery why only 58% of conservatives say they’ll vote Republican?